Taiwan's Q3 Economic Growth to Surpass Forecasts: DGBAS

Taiwan is slated to surpass forecasts in terms of economic growth for Q3. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS) is scheduled to release Q3 growth figures on Oct. 30.

The directorate general forecasted Q3 growth at 2.01%, though with Taiwan's current positive pandemic response, industry analysts expect the island's economic performance to perform better than expected.

The DGBAS revised its initial yearly economic growth statistics to 1.56% earlier this August. The office reported figures at 2.2%, -0.58%, 2.01%, and 2.56% for each quarter. The lowest was in Q2 this year, marking the lowest growth since 2009 Q4 during the economic recession.

Looking at exports, PMI, and NMI, the DGBAS Minister Chu Tzer-ming said growth figures look similar to the same period last year, further suggests identical outcomes to their forecasts for Q3 growth at 2.01%. Chu added Taiwan could also hit estimates for annual growth at 1.56% this year.

In August, the directorate-general estimates that export figures for the semiconductor and electronic and optical industry will build momentum, suggesting annual export value to hit USD$328.9 billion, a 0.1%-yearly decline. In general, Taiwan's export performance would perform better than statistics for May.

At the time, Chu was speaking during a legislative questioning session with lawmakers, who have expressed disbelief at the office's optimistic forecasts. Chu had refuted that other organizations laid out even higher figures.

The border and travel restrictions imposed in the first half of 2020 had severely impacted Taiwan's private consumption figures, with DGBAS figures suggesting growth in the negatives. However, countries lifting restrictions since June could help buoy stronger consumption performance in Q3 and Q4.